well, the most interesting of races today got a whole lot less interesting after the scratches were announced- the 6th race, maiden special wt, had a ton of promising runners before the late defections (however, three are entered back in maiden sp wt tomorrow so stay tuned for that write up tomorrow) and now the baffert entry figures about 1/5 in here. alas, let's see what else we can do.
r1: sweet stepper is clearly the one to beat in here off his last, but i like the way back classer yougottawanna is coming up to this one and this class level is where he's going to do most of his damage for the rest of his career as he's a cut below the lower level stakes horses. nakatani got an education riding him last time on turf, so i look for him to have better position in this race (remember, with the new rail position, speed has been holding up very well) when they turn for home. easy exacta box with sweet stepper?
r2: the best pal stakes- grade 2. i just looked at the morning line for this race and i cannot believe siphonizer is 6/1. i gave him out when he broke his maiden a few weeks ago, and while he does give up some experience to these, it's not like they've had a ton of races in them. siphonizer was ultra game in victory last out, and while the turnaround is fairly quick, he's been working strongly and figures very very tough if he makes the lead. the other one to look at is favorite ruler's court. doneraille court wasn't much of a race horse, but he was bred to be a star and should pass on some of that seattle slew class to his babies. ruler's court has trained in exceptional fashion for the darley/harty combo and should be a lot tougher this timeout. perfect moon doesn't thrill me as this his 7th! start of the year and he probably doesn't have that much improvement left in him. military mandate is a longshot to look at as his last was better than looked after he got away poorly. siphonizer and ruler's court look like the ones that will go on to be stakes performers as the year progresses.
r5: political rhetoric. rio reyes is clearly the one to beat as he ran too good to lose last out, but i'm hoping he'll get enough early pressure to make him slightly vulnerable. well, perusing the past performances reveals not a whole lot of early pace pressure, so it looks like 'rhetoric and 'reyes will run 1-2 around the track- with the slight edge to 'rhetoric b/c of the price and presence of pval.
r8: tough game. this one has always under-delivered on his promise and yes, i do realize this is a huge step up for him after losing to claimer ditch digger. however, 'game is capable of putting together some very big races and maybe the blinkers is just what the doctor ordered for him as he always seems to hang in the stretch. this is a very weak pat o'brien renewal and at 12/1 or so, 'game looks like the right price play.
r9: chip's n dip. machowsky is very good with debut runners and i expect this son of roy to come out running in claimerville. if you're shopping for a price, then grand gamble is your gamble as she's been training well in her first start in overa year for the very capable jay robbins. don't let those stats fool you, he can train (made a stakes winner out of the very lethargic Lottery Winner a few years back...)
from the two more things i learned yesterday department: stormin' home's antics might have been the most bizarre way to lose a race that i've seen in a long time and HEAT HAZE, winner of the Beverly D., is going to win the BC Filly & Mare Turf at SAnita this year. what an explosive turn of foot and although i'm not a huge fan, it was nice to see jose valdivia get so excited after winning the beverly d yesterday.
r1: sweet stepper is clearly the one to beat in here off his last, but i like the way back classer yougottawanna is coming up to this one and this class level is where he's going to do most of his damage for the rest of his career as he's a cut below the lower level stakes horses. nakatani got an education riding him last time on turf, so i look for him to have better position in this race (remember, with the new rail position, speed has been holding up very well) when they turn for home. easy exacta box with sweet stepper?
r2: the best pal stakes- grade 2. i just looked at the morning line for this race and i cannot believe siphonizer is 6/1. i gave him out when he broke his maiden a few weeks ago, and while he does give up some experience to these, it's not like they've had a ton of races in them. siphonizer was ultra game in victory last out, and while the turnaround is fairly quick, he's been working strongly and figures very very tough if he makes the lead. the other one to look at is favorite ruler's court. doneraille court wasn't much of a race horse, but he was bred to be a star and should pass on some of that seattle slew class to his babies. ruler's court has trained in exceptional fashion for the darley/harty combo and should be a lot tougher this timeout. perfect moon doesn't thrill me as this his 7th! start of the year and he probably doesn't have that much improvement left in him. military mandate is a longshot to look at as his last was better than looked after he got away poorly. siphonizer and ruler's court look like the ones that will go on to be stakes performers as the year progresses.
r5: political rhetoric. rio reyes is clearly the one to beat as he ran too good to lose last out, but i'm hoping he'll get enough early pressure to make him slightly vulnerable. well, perusing the past performances reveals not a whole lot of early pace pressure, so it looks like 'rhetoric and 'reyes will run 1-2 around the track- with the slight edge to 'rhetoric b/c of the price and presence of pval.
r8: tough game. this one has always under-delivered on his promise and yes, i do realize this is a huge step up for him after losing to claimer ditch digger. however, 'game is capable of putting together some very big races and maybe the blinkers is just what the doctor ordered for him as he always seems to hang in the stretch. this is a very weak pat o'brien renewal and at 12/1 or so, 'game looks like the right price play.
r9: chip's n dip. machowsky is very good with debut runners and i expect this son of roy to come out running in claimerville. if you're shopping for a price, then grand gamble is your gamble as she's been training well in her first start in overa year for the very capable jay robbins. don't let those stats fool you, he can train (made a stakes winner out of the very lethargic Lottery Winner a few years back...)
from the two more things i learned yesterday department: stormin' home's antics might have been the most bizarre way to lose a race that i've seen in a long time and HEAT HAZE, winner of the Beverly D., is going to win the BC Filly & Mare Turf at SAnita this year. what an explosive turn of foot and although i'm not a huge fan, it was nice to see jose valdivia get so excited after winning the beverly d yesterday.
